Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jul 12th, 2023

Dan Caird • July 12, 2023

Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening.


FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Relations

Ottawa, Ontario

July 12, 2023


The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.


Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, China’s economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation.


The Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025.


Canada’s economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing.


As higher interest rates continue to work their way through the economy, the Bank expects economic growth to slow, averaging around 1% through the second half of this year and the first half of next year. This implies real GDP growth of 1.8% in 2023 and 1.2% in 2024. The economy will move into modest excess supply early next year before growth picks up to 2.4% in 2025.


Inflation in Canada eased to 3.4% in May, a substantial and welcome drop from its peak of 8.1% last summer. While CPI inflation has come down largely as expected so far this year, the downward momentum has come more from lower energy prices, and less from easing underlying inflation. With the large price increases of last year out of the annual data, there will be less near-term downward momentum in CPI inflation. Moreover, with three-month rates of core inflation running around 3½-4% since last September, underlying price pressures appear to be more persistent than anticipated. This is reinforced by the Bank’s business surveys, which find businesses are still increasing their prices more frequently than normal.


In the July MPR projection, CPI inflation is forecast to hover around 3% for the next year before gradually declining to 2% in the middle of 2025. This is a slower return to target than was forecast in the January and April projections. Governing Council remains concerned that progress towards the 2% target could stall, jeopardizing the return to price stability.


In light of the accumulation of evidence that excess demand and elevated core inflation are both proving more persistent, and taking into account its revised outlook for economic activity and inflation, Governing Council decided to increase the policy interest rate to 5%. Quantitative tightening is complementing the restrictive stance of monetary policy and normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council will continue to assess the dynamics of core inflation and the outlook for CPI inflation. In particular, we will be evaluating whether the evolution of excess demand, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour are consistent with achieving the 2% inflation target. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.


Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on October 25, 2023.


Read the July 12th, 2023 Monetary Policy Report


Share

DAN CAIRD
Mortgage Agent | DLC

RECENT POSTS

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — April 29, 2026

By Dan Caird • April 29, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is holding its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. This decision comes against a backdrop of significant global uncertainty — and for Canadian homeowners, buyers, and anyone with a mortgage coming up for renewal, here's what it means.

Stress-Testing Your Mortgage Affordability: Why It Matters

By Dan Caird • April 22, 2026
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial commitments you’ll ever make. That’s why lenders want to be sure you can handle your mortgage payments—not just today, but also if interest rates rise in the future. This is where the mortgage stress test comes in. Many Canadians hear the term but aren’t entirely sure what it means or how it affects them. Let’s break it down in plain language. What Is the Mortgage Stress Test? The stress test is a rule introduced by the federal government that requires all mortgage applicants to qualify at a higher rate than the one they’ll actually pay. Currently, you must qualify at the greater of your contract rate + 2% or the benchmark qualifying rate (set by the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions). For example: If your lender offers you a 5-year fixed mortgage at 5.25%, you must show you could still afford the payments at 7.25% . Even if rates don’t rise that high, the stress test ensures you won’t be overextended if they do. Why Does It Matter? The stress test protects both borrowers and lenders by: Preventing over-borrowing : It ensures you don’t take on more debt than you can realistically handle. Preparing for rate hikes : With interest rates fluctuating, it’s a safeguard against sudden increases. Strengthening financial stability : It lowers the risk of defaults, protecting the housing market as a whole. While it can sometimes feel like a barrier—reducing the amount you qualify for—it’s ultimately designed to keep you from becoming “house poor.” How Does It Impact Buyers? The stress test can significantly affect your homebuying budget. For example, without it, you might qualify for a $600,000 mortgage, but with the stress test applied, you may only qualify for $500,000. That doesn’t mean your dream of homeownership is out of reach—it just means you may need to adjust expectations or explore other strategies, such as: Increasing your down payment Paying down existing debts Considering alternative lenders who may have different qualification standards Why Work With a Mortgage Professional? Every lender applies the stress test, but not every lender views your application the same way. An independent mortgage professional can: Shop multiple lenders to find the best fit Run affordability scenarios at different rates Help you understand how much house you can truly afford—without stretching your finances too thin The Bottom Line The mortgage stress test isn’t meant to stop you from buying a home—it’s there to protect you from financial strain down the road. By understanding how it works and planning ahead, you can make smarter choices and buy with confidence. If you’re thinking about purchasing a home, refinancing, or simply want to know how the stress test affects your options, connect with us today. We’ll help you stress-test your budget and find the mortgage solution that works best for you.